13:34 av: I am still not confident with the wave pattern. I bought the book about Elliott's Wave Theory and am reading little by little trying to grasp as much as I can. It is more the waves and the Fib Ratios that I am interested in
13:35 ZT: Well, the waves are not always clear and u have to distinguish between guidelines for counting waves. Basic guideline is that:
2nd waves retrace 62-79%
4th wave retraces 38%
in ABC, C tends to = A
in 12345, w3 tends to be 1.618*w1
and w5 tends to be = w1
13:38 ZT: That's it
13:37 av: Additionally I am looking at the Stoc, MACD, and Moving Averages etc
13:38 av: Are we able to find this pattern on a daily basis on the ES
13:38 ZT: maybe
13:38 av: Sometimes, I see that you use the Previous days trend to continue to the current day. I still have not mastered that technique
13:39 ZT: Most of the time, the intraday mkt is just marking time by bouncing between nearby BZ
Playback ES070104
13:46 ZT: make it Jan, 10 and also download the previous 6 days
13:46 ZT: ES070110 and previous 6 days -- let me start it and I'll post my PB settings
13:51 ZT: I'm showing about 1414.75 at 6:40 PT on the 5M
13:54 av: Do you show only the day session for the minute charts
13:54 ZT: y
13:55 ZT: possible double bottom here with low from 1/8, see chart
13:56 ZT: mkt tends to fill in gaps so I'm looking for rally from this double bottom up to 1420
13:56 av: k
13:57 ZT: I'll wait for an up bar
13:57 av: why 1420
13:57 ZT: because of the double bottom
13:57 ZT: that's the top of gap range
13:58 ZT: 2 strategies: (1) entry long here and put stop below LOD
13:58 ZT: or (2) enter long at w2
13:59 ZT: (2) requires waiting for w1 and w2 to complete
13:59 ZT: I will enter 1/2 now placing stop loss at 1412
14:02 ZT: reward = 1420-entry price. Risk = entry price -1412
14:02 ZT: entry price = 1414.5
14:03 ZT: so reward/risk = 5.5/2.5
14:04 av: Do u also look at other TF for confirmation of any sort
14:05 ZT: yes look at 1000v
14:05 ZT: moving stop to 1415
14:07 ZT: moving stop to 1416
14:07 ZT: stopped out
14:10 ZT: looking to buy at 62% retrace
14:10 av: 62%, how do you calc this
14:11 av: Fib Ratio between LOD and HOD
14:12 av: it just went through 1418
14:16 ZT: buying here
14:17 ZT: maybe another buy around 1417
14:19 ZT: long 10 at about 1417.38 (avg. price)
14:20 av: what prompted you to buy here?
14:20 ZT: support, buying another 5 at 1416.25
14:22 ZT: selling 5 at 1417.25
14:22 av: where is support?
14:22 ZT: 1415.5 and 1415
14:23 av: you saw resistance at 1417.50 and hence sold 5
14:23 ZT: buy 5 @1417 -- will sell at 1419
14:25 av: 1417 because it broke the resistance
14:26 ZT: I'm flat now
14:27 ZT: if is gets to 1420, start looking for a sell opposite
14:30 ZT: selling 5 1419.25 and stop at 1420.5
14:31 av: was there a confirmation for the decision as to not wait for 1420
14:31 ZT: double top
14:32 ZT: also sell 1418
14:32 av: need to train the eye
14:34 ZT: yes
14:33 ZT: target = 1415
14:34 av: .618 retracement
14:36 ZT: BZ res at 1419.5 to 1421.5
14:40 ZT: selling another 5 on break
14:42 av: where is the sell stop for the extra five that you just sold
14:42 ZT: 1419
14:42 ZT: flat here due to descending wedge (DW), will short again at 1419
14:46 ZT: short again at 1417.38
14:47 av: is there a reason for short at 1417.38?
14:47 ZT: trendline break
14:49 av: do you manage each trade separately or avg the stop limit
14:49 ZT: avg
14:50 av: it's just about to touch .618
14:50 ZT: yes, now flat
14:52 av: any reason for going flat?
14:52 ZT: hit support
14:52 av: do you continue to play this?
14:53 ZT: yes but not looking for long
14:54 av: we wait for A-B and then play the leg at C?
14:54 ZT: yes, this rally began from a double bottom, so the C of ABC may make a double bottom with A
14:56 av: A would be the price at 1415
14:59 ZT: expect B wave to retrace BZ of A wave so will short 1418-19
15:02 ZT: now short at 417.75, stop loss at 1419.5, should return at least 3 pts
15:03 av: always wait for Wave B to retrace below the support line, this was from the last session.
15:06 ZT: that's prop page for AskRatio-BidRatio (10 wma)
15:06 av: do we tighten stops now
15:06 ZT: yes, 1418
15:07 av: what does the Ask-BID ratio tell us
15:07 ZT: selling pressure, in terms of Bid/Ask and volume of trades
15:08 ZT: now we are another BZ minor sup, so this would be a place to take profit
15:09 av: 1416.30
15:09 ZT: but Ask>Bid still so I would not go long
15:12 ZT: shorting again at descending tops line
15:13 av: I don't know how you can so confidently play this, it's just amazing
15:14 ZT: keep focus on bigger picture, C wave down needed
15:15 ZT: We've begun the slow 9AM-11AM PT time so not much chance of rally
15:17 av: do you tighten the stop limit for wave C?
15:18 ZT: yes, I also take some profits since we at minor BZ sup again
15:18 av: It's just about to touch wave A -- 1415 --> so much of support
15:20 ZT: flat
15:20 av: Do you want for another setup or do you take these 2 double bottoms and start all over again
15:22 ZT: long 5 at 1416.5, stop 1414.75
15:23 av: just below the double bottom?
15:25 ZT: just after, and breakout
15:26 av: which breakout are you referring to, WAVE C?
15:26 ZT: 3 up
15:28 av: I see a double top on the 3000 vol... just broke through
15:29 ZT: looks like a breakout from a triangle so tgt is 1425 or 1422
15:32 av: can you show me the properties window for the 100R chart
15:32 ZT: same as 5m
15:37 av: why did you pick wave 3 as the second point for the formation tools and not B? is it because B is a correction?
15:38 ZT: 3 begins at c or e, since this correction was a triangle
15:38 av: do you tighten stops now
15:39 ZT: yes, and/or take some profit
15:40 av: what would be signs of any reversals of trend failures at this stage
15:40 ZT: reaching resistance. Always res at HOD test and sup LOD
15:41 ZT: flat here
15:41 av: if it breaks res, then jump on the train again
15:41 ZT: maybe, I'd rather wait for a pullback to get long
15:43 ZT: support is at yellow line
15:47 ZT: long 1418.88, stop 1417
15:47 av: reason for going long?
15:47 ZT: higher low is just below yellow line
15:47 av: 1417 is the .382
15:48 ZT: flat
15:48 av: which yellow line?
15:49 ZT: the one that is sup
15:49 av: was that a loss or did you close the position
15:49 ZT: no, 3/4 pt profit
15:50 ZT: buy here on rising sup line -- these are scalp trades, just going for 1/2-1 pt
15:52 ZT: stop 1418
15:52 av: I see 3 doji's on the 3000 vol
15:53 ZT: take profit at res
15:54 av: what would be the stop limit on these
15:54 ZT: 1421-22 or mkt
15:54 av: profit means close 50% or all
15:54 ZT: flat, out at 1421.5
15:56 av: are u also looking at other charts right now
15:56 ZT: yes, 5m and 3000v -- sup is now 1420
15:57 av: how did support become 1420
15:57 ZT: want a pullback near 1420 before getting long again
15:59 av: are you flat or long
15:59 ZT: flat
15:59 av: it's just moving along the res on the 3000 vol
16:00 ZT: will short at 1422, tgts: 1421, 1420
16:01 av: is it because of break out
16:01 ZT: rising wedge
16:02 av: can u post the 5 min
16:02 ZT: C=A at 1422.5
16:03 av: I see that, there are Doji's on the 3000 vol
16:04 av: 1421.50, 1 doji
16:06 av: how many contracts do you trade while scalping
16:06 ZT: 5
16:06 av: Does these doij's on the 3000 vol signify anything?
16:07 ZT: I'm only looking at 5m doji
16:07 av: what would be the stop limit for the 1422 short entry?
16:08 ZT: 1/2 pt above high
16:09 ZT: short from 1422
16:09 av: this is sort of difficult for me to grasp -- 4 bars touched 1421.25 on the 5 min, don't you take that as a support
16:11 ZT: maybe I should lol, but I'm seeing this thru
16:11 av: just made a new high at 423.25
16:12 ZT: shorting again at 1422.5 -- tgt: 1421, 1420
16:13 ZT: now short 10 @ 1422.5
16:14 ZT: flat
16:15 ZT: long 1421, stop 1419.5, tgt 1424
16:15 av: why do you go long now? are you confirming with some chart? can you post it? do you take the doji as support?
16:17 av: and 1 LL
16:17 ZT: trend is still up with major sup at 1420
16:17 av: I forgot about the major trend
16:19 av: formed a support @ 14.25 again -- how long does this scalping go on? do you look for another major trend in between?
16:22 ZT: 15m
16:24 av: chart please
16:25 ZT: looking to exit around 1424
16:25 av: don't you use the 200, 50 moving averages
16:25 ZT: no -- flat
16:27 av: how many monitors do you have
16:28 ZT: 3
16:28 av: requires so much of co-ordination to look at multiple TF's and you also trade multiple symbols
16:28 ZT: 1 for order entry. the other 2 for charts
16:31 ZT: will buy at 1421.5 (62% sup and t/l sup)
16:32 ZT: see how I keep playing the long side for all it's worth but only on pullbacks
16:32 ZT: long now at 1421.75, 10 contracts -- tgt: 1424
16:33 av: I am going to put together this chat session and paste the charts in between and then re-try this a couple of time and make myself comfortable with the setup and TF's
16:33 av: test of previous high.... why 1424? is it because of the top of resistance on the 3000 vol?
6:35 ZT: yes
16:35 ZT: Yesterday HOD = 1423.75
16:41 av: are u looking at other charts right now
16:41 ZT: just 3000v
16:41 av: do you take any profits now @1423.75
16:42 ZT: still long 10 @ 1421.75
16:42 av: stop limit -- it's teaching me lots of patience
16:44 av: sometimes you post the 9000v charts. is there any reason for picking the 3000 today.
16:44 ZT: y
16:44 ZT: flat, out at 1423.75
16:45 av: 2 points -- that's a beautiful score
16:45 ZT: I'm up $8813
16:45 av: I felt this was just too tight for me before this PB. we don't short here
16:46 ZT: might be a short here -- would like to see 1424 first
16:46 av: the range is slowly narrowing down
16:47 ZT: yes
16:47 av: since the market has moved sideways with a narrowing rage, do you still think it will hit 1424
16:48 ZT: yes. IB requires full margin after 12:45
16:48 ZT: I will short there,
16:49 ZT: short 5 @1424
16:49 av: stop limit
16:50 ZT: tgt= 1422 (w4)
16:51 av: are we in wave A
16:52 ZT: yes
16:54 ZT: tgt revised: 1422.5
16:58 av: do you tighten the stop here
16:58 ZT: yes
16:58 av: what would be the expected stop limit?
16:59 ZT: 1422.25 -- 1422.75
17:00 av: that brings us to 12:50pm
17:00 ZT: 12:54 and flat
17:00 av: how much do you pay for commission per contract?
17:01 ZT: $5 per round turn but for playback, I set it to $10
17:01 ZT: long at 1423
17:02 ZT: long 5 @ 1423, stop 1422, tgt 1424
17:06 ZT: flat: 1423.75
17:07 av: do u still continue with wave C
17:07 ZT: yes
17:07 ZT: C up, but that would be next day
17:08 av: why do you say C up
17:08 ZT: 27 trades
17:08 av: can u give me a projected chart for C up? 27 trades - does this equal to 27 contacts or 27 buy + sells
17:10 ZT: 27 round turns -- 5 contracts per turn
17:10 ZT: 1431 would be next tgt
17:12 ZT: ES is a tough mkt
17:12 av: but better than the ER2
17:12 ZT: u have to stay focused on bigger picture -- small corrections indicated trend in progress
17:13 av: does the fib retracement work for all the wave's and its correction to a certain degree at least? today's PB was like an example out of the book
17:14 ZT: it can, but best for w2 and wB
17:10 av: thanks for your time ZT